The national consumer price index (CPI) has returned to the “1 era”. Yesterday, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that CPI rose 1.2 percent year-on-year in April. However, with this rebound, the non-food industry has become an important area driving the price rise.
This time non-food prices pushed up CPI
Since this year, the CPI growth rate has experienced a big shock. After the CPI increase hit 2.5 percent in January, the year-on-year rise of C PI in February and March was less than 1 percent, with the lowest in February and 0.8 percent year-on-year increase.
It is worth noting that CPI rose to 1.2 percent year-on-year in April, and non-food prices became the main factor driving CPI rise. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from the comparison point of view, non-food prices rose 0.2 percent, affecting the CPI rose 0.18 percent age points. From a year-on-year perspective, non-food prices rose 2.4 percent year-on-year, affecting the CPI rise of about 1.90 percent age points.
Rope Guoqing, a senior statistician of the city Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in the non-food industry, medical treatment and tourism rose the highest. Among them, the price of medical care rose 5.7%, the price of tourism rose 4.2%, the price of transportation and education services both rose 3.4%, and the price of residence rose 2.4%.
However, the main driving force for CPI rise in the past is that food prices are declining this time.
Data show that food prices are affected by the continuous decline of fresh vegetables, pork and other prices, which is 0.6 percent lower than that of the previous month, and the CPI is about 0.11 percent age points lower. From a year-on-year perspective, food prices fell 3.5 percent year-on-year, affecting the CPI drop by about 0.73 percent age points. Among them, the price of fresh vegetables decreased by 21.6%, while the price of eggs, pork and poultry decreased by 11.4%, 8.1% and 2.7% respectively.
Rope National Day said that the core CPI excluding food and energy in April rose 2.1 percent year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percent age points from last month, maintaining a basically stable trend.
Reduce the gap between CPI and PPI scissors
In April, the ex-factory price (PPI) of industrial producers also showed new changes. From the comparison point of view, PPI changed from rising to falling in April, which was the first decline since last July. From a year-on-year perspective, due to the decline in the prices of bulk commodities such as energy and raw materials, PPI rose 6.4 percent in April, down 1.2 percent age points from last month.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, among the 40 industrial categories surveyed, the prices of products in 34 industries rose year on year, an increase from last month. Among them, the prices of oil and natural gas mining industry increased by 43.0%, the prices of coal mining and washing industry increased by 40.4%, the prices of oil processing industry increased by 27.5%, and the prices of ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 22.3%, the prices of non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry rose by 15.8%, while the prices of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry rose by 9.2%. The total impact of the above six industries PPI rose by about 4.9 percent age points year-on-year, accounting for of the total increase.
However, Zhou Jingtong, a researcher at the Institute of International Finance of Bank of China, said that due to the recent decline in the prices of energy raw materials such as steel, coal, copper and crude oil, considering the possible slowdown of China’s economic growth momentum and the impact of the monthly decrease of PPI carryover effect, the increase of PPI will continue to fall in the future.
In fact, the huge scissor gap between CPI and PPI previously worried by the industry has narrowed to 5.2 percent age points in April. In Zhou Jingtong’s view, the slowing increase of PPI will reduce the pressure on its transmission to CPI.
In the view of Wen Bin, the chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, affected by the base effect last year, it is expected that the CPI growth in the second and third quarters will further rise and the PPI growth will further fall. In other words, the “scissors gap” between CPI and PPI will be further reduced.
The necessity of monetary policy tightening has declined
CPI’s return to the “1 era” will not cause inflation concerns in the eyes of many insiders.
Zhou Jingtong said that in the coming period of time, the price of bulk commodities such as energy and raw materials will slow down year-on-year and turn positive to negative, which not only reflects that the previous increase is facing the pressure of correction, it also reflects the slowdown in demand for related commodities under the weak macro-economic power environment.
“There is no need to worry about inflation in the near future. The Space and necessity for further tightening of monetary policy in the future are declining, and more attention will be paid to preventing financial risks.” Zhou Jingtong said.
Wen Bin also believes that since this year, in order to achieve deleveraging of the financial sector and reduce systemic financial risks, market interest rates have been rising continuously. However, from the perspective of the next economic trend, monetary policy will remain stable and neutral.
Jiang Fan, Beijing Morning Post reporter
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The national consumer price index (CPI) returns to the “1 era”. Yesterday, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that CPI rose 1.2 percent year-on-year in April. However, with this rebound, the non-food industry has become an important area driving the price rise. This time